CANELO: IN OVER HIS HEAD; UNTIL HE ISN'T, BOXING AND PRODIGY

Flunky De jure Leonard Ellerbe would say the former, that the red headed Mexican is yet another version of “insert Latin opponent here” and many of you agree. Picking Floyd to win at this stage in his career isn’t the mark of “knowing some shit about boxing” as Uncle Roger would say; it would merely be seen as a sign of playing it safe. But where’s the imagination in that? And what can be more exciting than seeing a young man grow into himself before your eyes? History would illustrate that Floyd Mayweather (despite the issue of size) is as safe a bet as a primed Mike Tyson or Sonny Liston, but time tells us conventional wisdom is often offset when a prodigy arrives. We can plan on reliable veterans like Miguel Cotto putting on a great show, but we never know when a youngster decides he is more than what you’ve labeled him as. Canelo asked for Floyd, and Floyd “asked” (no I’m not buying it Leonard) that he chop off a leg which is telling given the fact that Floyd reminds us that he beat De La Hoya “at his weight” of 154 lbs. That concession alone is foretelling, evidence that Mayweather wasn’t too secure against the unforeseen, that unpredictable element a prodigious youth can provide.

Floyd is a genius at messaging, but the trait we love and hate about young folks is that they don’t listen. Canelo is famously serine, a byproduct of being thrown into an adult setting so young like many Mexican greats.

Ultimately the “Money Team” got around to letting all opponents know they aren’t used to being “under the bright lights” and they are in over their heads. Usually this may be a fact with anyone giving up huge advantages in Big Fight experience and skill, except in the rare case of the prodigy, something Floyd knows all about. He may be comfortable with “the stage” but the stage will always be in concert with nature, when the time has come it (the stage) will send no notice. Floyd himself was “the kid” all the way back in 1998 when he stepped in against Genaro Hernandez and looking back on it we forget the common wisdom that he was moving a bit too fast. What we didn’t know then and still don’t know now is the exact time a “would be” prodigy blossoms, but when they do it is always at the expense of an All Time Great. Could “All Access” or “24/7” have been able to capture a hint of anything in 1964 when Cassius Clay bloomed into a big, athletic postmodern heavyweight? I doubt it, because even Clay wasn’t as sure as history leads you to believe. We only see the prospect being “moved” (Mayweather points out Canelo’s presence on undercards)  with expertise up a ladder but we never see any hard evidence of greatness, Canelo like most is a “subject” of projections-even Floyd himself contends he’ll be “great someday”. We however tend to be like Floyd, watching and calculating based on data  (analyzing past performances against common foes)  so we have to remain cold and analytical about something that really isn’t when youth is involved. Ever notice men raising daughters always find out too late she’s developed into a young woman right under the same roof? because we look at hard evidence like birth certificates-we don’t do day to day.

In Boxing a youngster coming of age can be extremely dangerous to elders.

Young people have the benefit of contempt for authority and “order”, a 30 year old is more likely to start mentally spending his money when Floyd Mayweather starts whipping counters over his jab than a prodigy who inherently is willing to die. When faced with assured destruction an experienced “man” (Cotto, Guerrero) knows how to subdue his internal adrenalin just enough to lack urgency- while young George Foreman did what he “did” to Joe Frazier because he was scared shitless. Even Bernard Hopkins had to learn which youngsters it was ok to mess with, Mayweather just might be messing with the wrong kid.

Cotto didn’t think he was conceding, because only a 23 year old version of himself can tell him this. Alvarez in his youth is less likely to “think” Saturday night and I applaud this because it’s the “thinking” that gets Mayweather opponents in trouble. Floyd’s father can predict fatigue with a world of credibility but since when has he or his son been 23? Do they even remember what that sense of immortality feels like? Floyd’s underrated chin is rarely checked, and when it has been it has been at the hands of “men” like Judah and Mosley who either peeter out or admire their work- Canelo is a boy and vicious boys break things.

There is no prodigy (Tyson, Chavez Sr., Louis etc.) in the history of Boxing you wanted to “see” at 23 regardless of “who” they were facing-the only question is will Canelo join this group.

“If” Canelo is a prodigy he will be childlike, precocious and destructive, unaware that he isn’t “supposed” to be doing what he’s doing- because revolutions are always initiated by the young. Most of Boxing’s vandalism is committed by young men hell-bent on letting you know they “exist”, what better way to announce this than to piss on a monument?. 30 year olds succumb to chess players like Floyd, but a prodigious 23 year old may just have the balls (and youthful clarity) to flip the damned chess board over. It never crossed Wilfred Benitez’s mind he was only 17 when he did what he did to Antonio Cervantes in 1976, and given what followed he didn’t have any reverence for the feat afterwards. He thought he’d do stuff like that forever, but age taught him that forever is written in blood.  Canelo is so young that he (like Yusiel Puig) can do a lot of things “wrong” but end up doing the big things right, like most new music genres that coincidently always kill off  superior musicians with guts and intensity alone.

It’s up to Canelo if he is to be Johnny Rotten, Kirk Cobain or Grandmaster Flash. And it will be our pleasure to lie about it 10 years from now (as we do with Floyd) and say “I told you so”.

Floyd playing the “Resume Card”

Floyd likes to hold his resume against every opponent reminding them of his legacy and all of the great fighters he’s defeated. 21-0 in Championship bouts is worthy of a TMT T Shirt but it too can be debased in a blood sport like Boxing, if Canelo is committed to putting Floyd on his ass there’s no piece of paper in the world that will save him. Mayweather's confidence (and comfort)  is well founded because 17 years is a long time, so long that his critics can’t even talk to a whole segment of his fan base  who were 10 years old  in 2002-many of them (like Canelo) are 23.

Let’s play a little “name game”, what do Doug Jones, Andy Price, Pete Ranzany and Tony Pep all have in common? These were all guys who faught Ray Leonard, Cassius Clay, and Floyd Mayweather before they “became” who they are and none of them were of the caliber of Austin Trout. In fact none of these men have a victory over a fighter the caliber of Miguel Cotto before facing the 3 prodigies listed above.

Canelo may suffer from our perception of what a prodigy “is” because we generally associate this moniker with athletic, slick boxers. Prodigious fighters simply have to be talented and mature beyond their years, had Cotto (32) punched in the combination (and variation) of a “green” Canelo in his 2012 bout with Floyd he may have again been the opponent this past May. Even Shane Mosley warns not of power (Floyd has seen it all) but maturity, the kind of “grown man” skills that won’t tip his hand so early in a fight like older contemporaries. When Floyd was young legendary trainers spoke of subtleties and nuance unseen since the 1940’s and Canelo (if prodigious) may possess some of the same intricacy. In terms of confidence Floyd may be looking at the closest facsimile of himself (between the ears) since he started his bankable run as Boxing’s PPV star.

Prodigy is not of our making, and seeing one emerge is one of the more magical aspects in Boxing because they come along so rarely. Canelo Alvarez “is” in way over his head, until he isn’t; and that alone is why this is not just another fight.

This is The One